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July 22, 2015

Grace Poe running for President, either as independent or opposition, is a bad move.  If she does run, she will surely be lynched by her two rivals both of whom hellbent on becoming President, for being unqualified.  Enemies now, Jojo Binay and  Mar Roxas will even join forces on this one.  PNoy, with all the influence of his office, will likely lend a hand too in retaliation for having been jilted.  Read all the pro and opposing views on her qualification, the pro arguments, I must say, as much as my own discernment could manage–are weak, flimsy.  Legal cases could go either way, of course, but when the more compelling argument is helped in small measures by the influence of those in power, guess where the balance would eventually tilt when push comes to shove.  Who would then risk backing a candidate who could be disqualified eventually? (But I could be wrong!) Will Grace Poe even wager his position in the Senate which is bound to be affected by an unfavorable ruling on her qualifications?

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For this reason, I think Grace Poe will not be a candidate.  Unless Francis Escudero gets the better of her.  I think it is Chiz who is struggling to keep her afloat, sustaining the possibility of her running for President.  Chiz understands that his viability as a candidate for Vice-President depends a lot on him having a presidential candidate on which to hitch a ride.  And for now that could only be Poe.   Alone,  he would look, well, pathetic, and quixotic.  So, he must keep firing up Poe’s hope and desire, regardless that Poe could be disqualified later on.  But who will ever buy into this setup? NPC and NP?

VP Binay on the other hand is likely going to be arrested and jailed soon. The allies of Roxas will see to that.  Only the timing now is being calibrated.  Will this diminish his chances?  If Binay manages to turn the event in his favor instead, and impresses the public that he is innocent of the charges being  thrown in his direction, he would look more like a martyr being ganged up by the powers that be.  His chances thus are enhanced not diminished.   Unfortunately for him though, he looks more and more guilty by the day for adamantly refusing to answer any of the charges at all, insisting that only in a court of law he would answer these.    The allegations against him and his family are much too damaging for him to simply dismiss these as politically-motivated wrecking balls.   Being a veteran politician he should know enough that there is such a thing as court of public opinion and there, one is guilty until proven innocent.  I do not know how suing his enemies could change that.

With both front runners’ chances dimmed, what would possibly become of the chances of Roxas?   Will the votes for Binay and Poe be shifting to him? Unlikely it seems, unless something truly dramatic occurs soon enough that could transform his image into one of a willful, strong and capable leader, not the weakling, indecisive,  and incompetent one that most people see him now.

Or,  unless Roxas runs alone… which is highly improbable.

What should worry Roxas in fact is the possibility of the Binay and Poe potential votes eventually merging and seeking out  another candidate to support instead.   Having only Roxas as potential rival, a weak one at that, could indeed induce more candidates to join the rumble.  Right now, it is interesting to speculate just who among the presidentiables waiting in the wings would suddenly take the plunge.   Lately, there’s Miriam Defensor-Santiago merrily threatening to do just that.  And, of course, there are Rudy Duterte and Bongbong Marcos.  Incidentally, on an ongoing online survey, the three of them presently make up the top three among favorites to become President in 2016.

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